OAKVILLE, Ontario, Sept. 09, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- El Niño continues to intensify and is projected to become the strongest El Niño event on record. With an exceptional El Niño taking over as the dominant influence on fall weather patterns, can we anticipate a season filled with extreme weather?
To answer this question, The Weather Network has released its fall forecast for the rest of September, October and November.
“While many parts of the world are bracing for the impacts of a historic El Niño, Canada is not expected to feel the brunt of its effects,” said Doug Gillham, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Network. “In fact, El Niño could have a moderating influence on some of the weather extremes that we might otherwise experience.”
Fall storms are legendary across Canada and we are still at risk for a few high-impact storms this season. However, we expect fewer classic fall storms than we typically see during October and November. We should also see fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and we expect a delay in the arrival of consistent winter weather. This will give most of Canada an extended fall season.
Fall is notorious for fickle temperatures and this year will be no exception with shots of chilly weather offset by periods of warmer weather. However, mild conditions should win out in the end across most of Canada.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is associated with warmer-than-normal ocean water temperatures in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean to the west of South America. This has an impact on the global jet stream pattern.
Here’s a more detailed look at the conditions that we expect across Canada this fall:
British Columbia
Early September has delivered much-needed relief from the hot and dry conditions that we endured for much of the summer. Looking ahead, most of the province will be warmer and drier than normal during the second half of September and well into October, especially across the interior, but the worst of the heat is in the rearview mirror. However, coastal areas will be near seasonal, and a more active late season pattern should bring precipitation totals close to normal. We expect a delayed start to winter for most of the province, but alpine regions could be just cold enough for substantial snow as we approach the start of the ski season.
The Prairies
Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate during much of the fall season, but there will be chilly interruptions along the way which will include some early winter-like weather. However, while early winter conditions may threaten at times, mild temperatures will return during November and into December with a delayed start to consistent winter weather. Precipitation totals are expected to be near normal across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba and below normal elsewhere.
Ontario & Quebec
An extended fall season is expected across the region. September and October will feature a typical fall pattern with changeable temperatures, which will include a few shots of colder weather. However, rather mild weather is expected to prevail during November and continue into December, resulting in a delayed start to consistent wintry conditions. We have a heightened risk for a couple of high impact fall storms, but fewer storms are expected overall.
Atlantic Canada
A typical fall is expected across the region with changeable temperatures as we make the turbulent transition from summer to winter. While late fall usually includes tastes of early winter weather, we expect a late start to consistent wintry conditions. The quiet Atlantic hurricane season will continue, but we shouldn’t let our guard down yet. Very warm ocean water temperatures still put the region at risk for tropical impacts. Precipitation totals for the fall are expected to be near normal.
Northern Canada
Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate across most of the region, but western parts of the Yukon are expected to be near normal. Below-normal precipitation is expected across southern parts of the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, but most of the region will see typical amounts of rain, snow and ice during the season. Far northern areas are expected to see above-normal precipitation.
| The Weather Network: Fall 2026 Forecast | ||
| Region | Temperature Outlook | Precipitation Outlook |
| British Columbia | Above normal; Near normal coast | Near normal west; Below normal interior |
| Alberta | Above normal | Below normal |
| Saskatchewan | Above normal | Near normal south; Below normal elsewhere |
| Manitoba | Above normal | Near normal south; Below normal elsewhere |
| Ontario | Above normal | Below normal |
| Québec | Above normal west and central; Near normal east | Below normal |
| The Maritimes and Newfoundland and Labrador | Near normal; Above normal south | Near normal |
| Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut | Above normal; Near normal western Yukon and northeastern Nunavut | Below normal southern NWT and southern Nunavut; Above normal far north; Near normal elsewhere |
Canadians can check daily forecasts by visiting www.theweathernetwork.com or by downloading The Weather Network App available on iOS and Android, and creating an account for personalized and up-to-the-minute forecasts.
Complete fall forecast details, including regional breakdowns, maps and charts are available on our seasonal page at theweathernetwork.com/fall.
Interview opportunities: The Weather Network meteorologists are available for interviews between Sept. 9 to 11 to provide additional details and localized insights on what Canadians can expect for the fall season.
To arrange an interview with a meteorologist, please contact:
Madelaine Lapointe
mediainquiry@pelmorex.com
About Pelmorex
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